Development and validation of a lifetime prediction model for incident type 2 diabetes in patients with established cardiovascular disease: the CVD2DM model.

AIMS: Identifying patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) who are at high risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) may allow for early interventions, reducing the development of T2D and associated morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate the CVD2DM model to estimate the 10-year and lifetime risks of T2D in patients with established CVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Sex-specific, competing risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were derived in 19 281 participants with established CVD and without diabetes at baseline from the UK Biobank. The core model's pre-specified predictors were age, current smoking, family history of diabetes mellitus, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, and HDL cholesterol. The extended model also included HbA1c. The model was externally validated in 3481 patients from the UCC-SMART study. During a median follow-up of 12.2 years (interquartile interval 11.3-13.1), 1628 participants with established CVD were diagnosed with T2D in the UK Biobank. External validation c-statistics were 0.79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-0.82] for the core model and 0.81 (95% CI 0.78-0.84) for the extended model. Calibration plots showed agreement between predicted and observed 10-year risk of T2D. CONCLUSION: The 10-year and lifetime risks of T2D can be estimated with the CVD2DM model in patients with established CVD, using readily available clinical predictors. The model would benefit from further validation across diverse ethnic groups to enhance its applicability. Informing patients about their T2D risk could motivate them further to adhere to a healthy lifestyle.

In this study, we developed and externally validated the CVD2DM model, which predicts the 10-year and lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in individuals who already have cardiovascular disease (CVD). The key findings are as follows: The CVD2DM model is the first model to estimate the risk of developing T2D applicable in all patients with atherosclerotic CVD. The model is based on several factors available in clinical practice, such as age, fasting plasma glucose, family history of diabetes, and body mass index. It was developed in 19 281 patients from the UK Biobank. The model performed well in 3481 patients from the UCC-SMART study.Informing patients about their T2D risk could motivate them further to adhere to a healthy lifestyle.

Lifetime and 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with type 1 diabetes: The LIFE-T1D model.

AIMS: To develop and externally validate the LIFE-T1D model for the estimation of lifetime and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with type 1 diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A sex-specific competing risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model was derived in individuals with type 1 diabetes without prior CVD from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR), using age as the time axis. Predictors included age at diabetes onset, smoking status, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, glycated haemoglobin level, estimated glomerular filtration rate, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, albuminuria and retinopathy. The model was externally validated in the Danish Funen Diabetes Database (FDDB) and the UK Biobank. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11.8 years (interquartile interval 6.1-17.1 years), 4608 CVD events and 1316 non-CVD deaths were observed in the NDR (n = 39 756). The internal validation c-statistic was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-0.85) and the external validation c-statistics were 0.77 (95% CI 0.74-0.81) for the FDDB (n = 2709) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.77) for the UK Biobank (n = 1022). Predicted risks were consistent with the observed incidence in the derivation and both validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The LIFE-T1D model can estimate lifetime risk of CVD and CVD-free life expectancy in individuals with type 1 diabetes without previous CVD. This model can facilitate individualized CVD prevention among individuals with type 1 diabetes. Validation in additional cohorts will improve future clinical implementation.

Sex differences in modifiable risk factors for stroke incidence and recurrence: the UCC-SMART study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Risk factors for stroke differ between women and men in general populations. However, little is known about sex differences in secondary prevention. We investigated if sex interacted with modifiable risk factors for stroke in a large arterial disease cohort. METHODS: Within the prospective UCC-SMART study, 13,898 patients (35% women) with atherosclerotic disease or high-risk factor profile were followed up to 23 years for stroke incidence or recurrence. Hypertension, smoking, diabetes, overweight, dyslipidemia, high alcohol use, and physical inactivity were studied as risk factors. Association between these factors and ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke incidence or recurrence was studied in women and men using Cox proportional hazard models and Poisson regression models. Women-to-men relative hazard ratios (RHR) and rate differences (RD) were estimated for each risk factor. Left-truncated age was used as timescale. RESULTS: The age-adjusted stroke incidence rate was lower in women than men (3.9 vs 4.4 per 1000 person-years), as was the age-adjusted stroke recurrence rate (10.0 vs 11.7). Hypertension and smoking were associated with stroke risk in both sexes. HDL cholesterol was associated with lower stroke incidence in women but not in men (RHR 0.49; CI 0.27-0.88; and RD 1.39; CI - 1.31 to 4.10). Overweight was associated with a lower stroke recurrence in women but not in men (RHR 0.42; CI 0.23-0.80; and RD 9.05; CI 2.78-15.32). CONCLUSIONS: In high-risk population, sex modifies the association of HDL cholesterol on stroke incidence, and the association of overweight on stroke recurrence. Our findings highlight the importance of sex-specific secondary prevention.

Cost-effectiveness of Mediterranean diet and physical activity in secondary CVD prevention: results from the UCC-SMART cohort study.

AIMS: The efficacy of a healthy lifestyle in secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well established and a first-line recommendation in CVD prevention guidelines. The aim of this study was to assess if they are also cost-effective in patients with established CVD. METHODS: A cost-utility analysis (CUA) was performed comparing a combined Mediterranean diet and physical activity intervention to usual care in CVD patients. The CUA had a healthcare perspective and lifetime horizon. Costs and utilities were estimated using a microsimulation on a cohort of 100,000 CVD patients sampled from the UCC-SMART study (N = 8,947, mean age 62 ±8.7 years and 74% male). Cost-effectiveness was expressed as incrementalcost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), incremental net health benefit (INHB) and incremental net monetary benefit (INMB). RESULTS: Mediterranean diet and physical activity yielded 2.0 incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and cost reductions of €1,236 per person compared to usual care, resulting in an ICER of €-626/QALY (95%CI -1,929 to 2,673). At a willingness-to-pay of €20,000/QALY, INHB was 2.04 (95%CI 0.99-3.58) QALY and INMB was €40,757 (95%CI 19,819-71,605). The interventions remained cost-effective in a wide range of sensitivity analyses, including worst-case scenarios and scenarios with reimbursement for food and physical activity costs. CONCLUSION: In patients with established CVD, a combined Mediterranean diet and physical activity intervention was cost-saving and highly cost-effective compared to usual care. These findings strongly advocate for the incorporation of lifestyle interventions as integral components of care for all CVD patients.

Lifestyle optimization, including physical activity and healthy diet, is a central recommendation for preventing recurrent cardiovascular events. In this study, we assessed if improving physical activity habits and adherence to a heart-healthy Mediterranean diet would also be a cost-effective option. The results were remarkable - following the Mediterranean diet and engaging in physical activity was expected to result in an increase of 2.0 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs, equal to a life year in perfect health) and cost savings. This means that lifestyle optimization in secondary CVD prevention improves population health, while reducing overall health care costs. These findings underscore the importance of implementing lifestyle changes in the care for all individuals with CVD. A health lifestyle is not only effective in improving health but also a prudent financial decision. Key messages  A combined Mediterranean diet and physical activity intervention is expected to result in two additional QALYs and three additional life years free of recurrent cardiovascular events per patient with with established CVDTargeting a healthy lifestyle is expected to lead to costs savings compared to usual care, due to the low costs of the intervention and the high efficacy in preventing recurrent cardiovascular events.Lifestyle optimization in secondary CVD prevention was shown to result in a dominant incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €-626/QALY, which strongly advocates for healthy policy targeted at implementing lifestyle interventions in regular care for CVD patients.

Prevalence and determinants of self-reported low-fat-, low-salt-, and vegetarian diets in patients with cardiovascular disease between 1996 and 2019.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Guidelines no longer recommend low-fat diets and currently recommend more plant-based diets to reduce atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Furthermore, these guidelines have consistently recommended salt-reduced diets. This article describes current self-reported use and time-trends in the self-reported use of low-fat, low-salt and vegetarian diets in ASCVD patients and examines patient characteristics associated with each diet. METHODS AND RESULTS: 9005 patients with ASCVD included between 1996 and 2019 in the UCC-SMART cohort were studied. The prevalence of self-reported diets was assessed and multi-variable logistic regression was used to identify the determinants of each diet. Between 1996-1997 and 2018-2019, low-fat diets declined from 22.4 % to 3.8 %, and low-salt diets from 14.7 % to 4.6 %. The prevalence of vegetarian diets increased from 1.1 % in 1996-1997 to 2.3 % in 2018-2019. Patients with cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) and peripheral artery disease or an abdominal aortic aneurysm (PAD/AAA) were less likely to report a low-salt diet than coronary artery disease (CAD) patients (OR 0.62 [95%CI 0.49-0.77] and 0.55 [95%CI 0.41-0.72]). CONCLUSION: In the period 1996 to 2019 amongst patients with ASCVD, the prevalence of self-reported low-fat diets was low and decreased in line with changes in recommendations in major guidelines. The prevalence of self-reported vegetarian diets was low but increased in line with societal and guideline changes. The prevalence of self-reported low-salt diets was low, especially in CeVD and PAD/AAA patients compared to CAD patients, and decreased over time. Renewed action is needed to promote low-salt diets in ASCVD patients.

Impact of the 2021 European Society for Cardiology prevention guideline's stepwise approach for cardiovascular risk factor treatment in patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

AIMS: This study aimed to evaluate the stepwise approach for cardiovascular (CV) risk factor treatment as outlined by the European Society for Cardiology 2021 guidelines on CV disease (CVD) prevention in patients with established atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: In patients with ASCVD, included in UCC-SMART (n = 8730) and European parts of the REACH registry (n = 18 364), the 10-year CV risk was estimated using SMART2. Treatment effects were derived from meta-analyses and trials. Step 1 recommendations were LDL cholesterol (LDLc) < 1.8 mmol/L, systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 140 mmHg, using any antithrombotic medication, sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibition, and smoking cessation. Step 2 recommendations were LDLc < 1.4 mmol/L, SBP < 130 mmHg, dual-pathway inhibition (DPI, aspirin plus low-dose rivaroxaban), colchicine, glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1 receptor agonists, and eicosapentaenoic acid. Step 2 was modelled accounting for Step 1 non-attainment. With current treatment, residual CV risk was 22%, 32%, and 60% in the low, moderate, and pooled (very) high European risk regions, respectively. Step 2 could prevent up to 198, 223 and 245 events per 1000 patients treated, respectively. Intensified LDLc reduction, colchicine, and DPI could be applied to most patients, preventing up to 57, 74, and 59 events per 1000 patients treated, respectively. Following Step 2, the number of patients with a CV risk of <10% could increase from 20%, 6.4%, and 0.5%, following Step 1, to 63%, 48%, and 12%, in the respective risk regions. CONCLUSION: With current treatment, residual CV risk in patients with ASCVD remains high across all European risk regions. The intensified Step 2 treatment options result in marked further reduction of residual CV risk in patients with established ASCVD. KEY FINDINGS: Guideline-recommended intensive treatment of patients with cardiovascular disease could prevent additional 198-245 new cardiovascular events for every 1000 patients treated.

Patients with established cardiovascular disease are at high risk for new cardiovascular events. The European Society of Cardiology guideline for the prevention of cardiovascular disease introduced a stepwise treatment approach. Step 1 in this approach are treatments that apply to all patients, and Step 2 are intensive treatments that can be prescribed to patients who are still at high risk of new events even with Step 1 treatments. The current study investigates the effect of Steps 1 and 2 on the risk of cardiovascular disease in 27 094 patients all across Europe. With the conventional treatments of Step 1 the risk of cardiovascular disease remains high, with a 10-year risk of new events higher than 10% in 80­99% of patients. The intensive treatment options from Step 2 could prevent additional 198­245 new cardiovascular events for every 1000 patients that are treated. With intensive treatment, up to 63% of patients could achieve a 10-year risk of new cardiovascular disease below 10%.

Continuous glucose monitoring in adults with type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) is increasingly used in the treatment of type 2 diabetes, but the effects on glycaemic control are unclear. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to provide a comprehensive overview of the effect of CGM on glycaemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We performed a systematic review using Embase, MEDLINE, Web of Science, Scopus and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception until 2 May 2023. We included RCTs investigating real-time CGM (rtCGM) or intermittently scanned CGM (isCGM) compared with self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) in adults with type 2 diabetes. Studies with an intervention duration <6 weeks or investigating professional CGM, a combination of CGM and additional glucose-lowering treatment strategies or GlucoWatch were not eligible. Change in HbA1c and the CGM metrics time in range (TIR), time below range (TBR), time above range (TAR) and glycaemic variability were extracted. We evaluated the risk of bias using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool version 2. Data were synthesised by performing a meta-analysis. We also explored the effects of CGM on severe hypoglycaemia and micro- and macrovascular complications. RESULTS: We found 12 RCTs comprising 1248 participants, with eight investigating rtCGM and four isCGM. Compared with SMBG, CGM use (rtCGM or isCGM) led to a mean difference (MD) in HbA1c of -3.43 mmol/mol (-0.31%; 95% CI -4.75, -2.11, p<0.00001, I2=15%; moderate certainty). This effect was comparable in studies that included individuals using insulin with or without oral agents (MD -3.27 mmol/mol [-0.30%]; 95% CI -6.22, -0.31, p=0.03, I2=55%), and individuals using oral agents only (MD -3.22 mmol/mol [-0.29%]; 95% CI -5.39, -1.05, p=0.004, I2=0%). Use of rtCGM showed a trend towards a larger effect (MD -3.95 mmol/mol [-0.36%]; 95% CI -5.46 to -2.44, p<0.00001, I2=0%) than use of isCGM (MD -1.79 mmol/mol [-0.16%]; 95% CI -5.28, 1.69, p=0.31, I2=64%). CGM was also associated with an increase in TIR (+6.36%; 95% CI +2.48, +10.24, p=0.001, I2=9%) and a decrease in TBR (-0.66%; 95% CI -1.21, -0.12, p=0.02, I2=45%), TAR (-5.86%; 95% CI -10.88, -0.84, p=0.02, I2=37%) and glycaemic variability (-1.47%; 95% CI -2.94, -0.01, p=0.05, I2=0%). Three studies reported one or more events of severe hypoglycaemia and macrovascular complications. In comparison with SMBG, CGM use led to a non-statistically significant difference in the incidence of severe hypoglycaemia (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.15, 3.00, p=0.57, I2=0%) and macrovascular complications (RR 1.54, 95% CI 0.42, 5.72, p=0.52, I2=29%). No trials reported data on microvascular complications. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: CGM use compared with SMBG is associated with improvements in glycaemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes. However, all studies were open label. In addition, outcome data on incident severe hypoglycaemia and incident microvascular and macrovascular complications were scarce. REGISTRATION: This systematic review was registered on PROSPERO (ID CRD42023418005).

Generalisability of trials on antithrombotic treatment intensification in patients with cardiovascular disease.

OBJECTIVE: Assessment of generalisability of guideline-informing trials on antithrombotic treatment intensification to real-world patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: Inclusion and exclusion criteria of the Cardiovascular Outcomes for People Using Anticoagulation Strategies (COMPASS), Clopidogrel for High Atherothrombotic Risk and Ischemic Stabilization, Management and Avoidance (CHARISMA), Prevention of Cardiovascular events in Patients with Prior Heart Attack Using Ticagrelor Compared to Placebo on a Background of Aspirin-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (PEGASUS-TIMI) and Dual Antiplatelet Therapy (DAPT) study were applied to coronary artery disease (CAD) and/or peripheral artery disease (PAD) patients from Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease (UCC-SMART) to determine real-world eligibility. Eligible and ineligible patients were compared on baseline characteristics, cardiovascular events, major bleeding and mortality. RESULTS: Eligibility ranged from 11%-94% for CAD to 75%-90% for patients with PAD. Cardiovascular, bleeding and mortality risks were higher in COMPASS-eligible patients with CAD (rate ratios (RR) 1.98 (95% CI 1.74 to 2.26), 2.02 (95% CI 1.47 to 2.78) and 3.11 (95% CI 2.71 to 3.57), respectively) and CHARISMA-eligible patients (RR 1.51 (95% CI 1.12 to 2.06), 2.25 (95% CI 1.01 to 6.21) and 4.43 (95% CI 2.79 to 7.51), respectively), and lower in COMPASS-eligible patients with PAD (RR 0.45 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.56), 0.29 (95% CI 0.18 to 0.46) and 0.45 (95% CI 0.38 to 0.54), respectively) and DAPT-eligible patients with CAD (RR CVD 0.49 (95% CI 0.34 to 0.69) and mortality 0.67 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.94)) than ineligible patients. After adjustment for trial eligibility criteria, only higher cardiovascular and mortality risks in COMPASS-eligible patients with CAD and lower cardiovascular risks in CHARISMA-eligible and DAPT-eligible patients persisted with CAD. CONCLUSION: A large proportion of contemporary CVD patients would be eligible for intensified antithrombotic treatment trials, with mostly similar adjusted event risks to ineligible patients. Trial-based guideline recommendations are largely applicable to real-world patients.

Plasma lipids in Pseudoxanthoma Elasticum (PXE) patients: A comparative study with population-based reference values and Non-PXE controls.

Background and aims: - Pseudoxanthoma elasticum (PXE) is a rare genetic disease caused by pathogenic mutations in the ABCC6 gene, resulting in low values of inorganic pyrophosphate (PPi). While low PPi is thought to contribute to arterial calcification, it remains unclear whether this fully explains premature calcification in PXE. It has been hypothesized that the ABCC6 gene could be related to dyslipidemia, which could contribute to vascular calcification seen in PXE. The aim of this study is to evaluate the relation between PXE and plasma lipid concentrations in a large cohort of PXE patients compared with reference values for the general population and compared with non-PXE controls. Methods: - The plasma concentrations of total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, tiglycerides, and LDL-cholesterol of 312 PXE patients were compared to age- and sex-matched modeled data of the general Dutch population. Differences in median lipid levels were compared with Mann-Whitney-U test. Secondly, plasma lipid concentrations of 44 PXE patients were compared to 44 not-genetically related relatives (spouses or friends), with linear models adjusted for age, sex and BMI. Results: - Total cholesterol in PXE patients was 5.6 [IQR 4.6-6.4] mmol/L versus 5.3 [IQR 4.7-6.0] mmol/L (p < 0.01) in the general population; triglycerides were 1.1 [IQR 0.9-1.7] mmol/L versus 1.0 [0.7-1.4] mmol/L (p < 0.01); HDL-c was 1.4 [IQR 1.2-1.7] mmol/L versus 1.5 [IQR 1.2-1.8] mmol/L (p = 0.03) and LDL-c was 3.3 [IQR 2.7-4.1] mmol/L versus 3.2 [IQR 2.7-3.8] mmol/L (p = 0.01). In the patient control analysis with 44 pairs and age, sex and BMI adjusted, comparison with the non-PXE controls only triglycerides were significantly different (mean difference: 0.38 (0.13-0.63)). Conclusion: -The lipid profiles of PXE patients are marginally different from the general population or compared to a matched control group, but the differences are unlikely to be clinically relevant. It is therefore unlikely that plasma lipids contribute to the premature vascular calcifications in PXE patients.

Long-term lifestyle change and risk of mortality and Type 2 diabetes in patients with cardiovascular disease.

AIMS: To quantify the relationship between self-reported, long-term lifestyle changes (smoking, waist circumference, physical activity, and alcohol consumption) and clinical outcomes in patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were used from 2011 participants (78% male, age 57 ± 9 years) from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease cohort who returned for a re-assessment visit (SMART2) after ∼10 years. Self-reported lifestyle change was classified as persistently healthy, improved, worsened, or persistently unhealthy. Cox proportional hazard models were used to quantify the relationship between lifestyle changes and the risk of (cardiovascular) mortality and incident Type 2 diabetes (T2D). Fifty-seven per cent of participants was persistently healthy, 17% improved their lifestyle, 8% worsened, and 17% was persistently unhealthy. During a median follow-up time of 6.1 (inter-quartile range 3.6-9.6) years after the SMART2 visit, 285 deaths occurred, and 99 new T2D diagnoses were made. Compared with a persistently unhealthy lifestyle, individuals who maintained a healthy lifestyle had a lower risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.36-0.63], cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.38-0.87), and incident T2D (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.28-0.73). Similarly, those who improved their lifestyle had a lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.37-0.74), cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.26-0.81), and incident T2D (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.27-0.92). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that maintaining or adopting a healthy lifestyle can significantly lower mortality and incident T2D risk in CVD patients. This study emphasizes the importance of ongoing lifestyle optimization in CVD patients, highlighting the potential for positive change regardless of previous lifestyle habits.

In this study, we investigated whether lifestyle changes were related to improved health outcomes in individuals with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We assessed self-reported lifestyle behaviours (smoking, waist circumference, alcohol consumption, and physical activity), at inclusion in the cohort and again ∼10 years later. The results emphasize the importance of making healthy lifestyle choices, even for individuals already diagnosed with CVD, and suggest that it is never too late to improve one's lifestyle.

Validation of Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) and SCORE2-Older Persons in the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population cohort.

AIMS: The European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) and SCORE2-Older Persons (OP) models are recommended to identify individuals at high 10-year risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Independent validation and assessment of clinical utility is needed. This study aims to assess discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of low-risk SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. METHODS AND RESULTS: Validation in individuals aged 40-69 years (SCORE2) and 70-79 years (SCORE2-OP) without baseline CVD or diabetes from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC) Norfolk prospective population study. We compared 10-year CVD risk estimates with observed outcomes (cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and stroke). For SCORE2, 19 560 individuals (57% women) had 10-year CVD risk estimates of 3.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.6-3.7] vs. observed 3.8% (95% CI 3.6-4.1) [observed (O)/expected (E) ratio 1.0 (95% CI 1.0-1.1)]. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.75 (95% CI 0.74-0.77), with underestimation of risk in men [O/E 1.4 (95% CI 1.3-1.6)] and overestimation in women [O/E 0.7 (95% CI 0.6-0.8)]. Decision curve analysis (DCA) showed clinical benefit. Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2-Older Persons in 3113 individuals (58% women) predicted 10-year CVD events in 10.2% (95% CI 10.1-10.3) vs. observed 15.3% (95% CI 14.0-16.5) [O/E ratio 1.6 (95% CI 1.5-1.7)]. The AUC was 0.63 (95% CI 0.60-0.65) with underestimation of risk across sex and risk ranges. Decision curve analysis showed limited clinical benefit. CONCLUSION: In a UK population cohort, the SCORE2 low-risk model showed fair discrimination and calibration, with clinical benefit for preventive treatment initiation decisions. In contrast, in individuals aged 70-79 years, SCORE2-OP demonstrated poor discrimination, underestimated risk in both sexes, and limited clinical utility.

To effectively prevent heart disease, it is important to identify individuals who are at a higher risk of developing it. Researchers have developed models that can estimate the likelihood of a healthy person developing heart disease within the next 10 years. This study, involving 22 673 healthy individuals in the UK, aimed to determine if these risk estimation models are accurate and can guide decisions about who should receive preventive treatment.

Validating the SMART2 Score in a Racially Diverse High-Risk Nationwide Cohort of Patients Receiving Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting.

Background We tested the potential of the Secondary Manifestations of Arterial Disease (SMART2) risk score for use in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. Methods and Results We conducted an external validation of the SMART2 score in a racially diverse high-risk national cohort (2010-2019) that underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. We calculated the preoperative SMART2 score and modeled the 5-year major adverse cardiovascular event (cardiovascular mortality+myocardial infarction+stroke) incidence. We evaluated SMART2 score discrimination at 5 years using c-statistic and calibration with observed/expected ratio and calibration plots. We analyzed the potential clinical benefit using decision curves. We repeated these analyses in clinical subgroups, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and polyvascular disease, and separately in White and Black patients. In 27 443 (mean age, 65 years; 10% Black individuals) US veterans undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (2010-2019) nationwide, the 5-year major adverse cardiovascular event rate was 25%; 27% patients were in high predicted risk (>30% 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events). SMART2 score discrimination (c-statistic: 64) was comparable to the original study (c-statistic: 67) and was best in patients with chronic kidney disease (c-statistic: 66). However, it underpredicted major adverse cardiovascular event rates in the whole cohort (observed/expected ratio, 1.45) as well as in all studied subgroups. The SMART2 score performed better in White than Black patients. On decision curve analysis, the SMART2 score provides a net benefit over a wide range of risk thresholds. Conclusions The SMART2 model performs well in a racially diverse coronary artery bypass grafting cohort, with better predictive capabilities at the upper range of baseline risk, and can therefore be used to guide secondary preventive pharmacotherapy.

Intima-media thickness at the near or far wall of the common carotid artery in cardiovascular risk assessment.

Aims: Current guidelines recommend measuring carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) at the far wall of the common carotid artery (CCA). We aimed to precisely quantify associations of near vs. far wall CCA-IMT with the risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD, defined as coronary heart disease or stroke) and their added predictive values. Methods and results: We analysed individual records of 41 941 participants from 16 prospective studies in the Proof-ATHERO consortium {mean age 61 years [standard deviation (SD) = 11]; 53% female; 16% prior CVD}. Mean baseline values of near and far wall CCA-IMT were 0.83 (SD = 0.28) and 0.82 (SD = 0.27) mm, differed by a mean of 0.02 mm (95% limits of agreement: -0.40 to 0.43), and were moderately correlated [r = 0.44; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.39-0.49). Over a median follow-up of 9.3 years, we recorded 10 423 CVD events. We pooled study-specific hazard ratios for CVD using random-effects meta-analysis. Near and far wall CCA-IMT values were approximately linearly associated with CVD risk. The respective hazard ratios per SD higher value were 1.18 (95% CI: 1.14-1.22; I² = 30.7%) and 1.20 (1.18-1.23; I² = 5.3%) when adjusted for age, sex, and prior CVD and 1.09 (1.07-1.12; I² = 8.4%) and 1.14 (1.12-1.16; I²=1.3%) upon multivariable adjustment (all P < 0.001). Assessing CCA-IMT at both walls provided a greater C-index improvement than assessing CCA-IMT at one wall only [+0.0046 vs. +0.0023 for near (P < 0.001), +0.0037 for far wall (P = 0.006)]. Conclusions: The associations of near and far wall CCA-IMT with incident CVD were positive, approximately linear, and similarly strong. Improvement in risk discrimination was highest when CCA-IMT was measured at both walls.

Personalized lifetime prediction of survival and treatment benefit in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: The LIFE-HF model.

AIMS: Although trials have proven the group-level effectiveness of various therapies for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), important differences in absolute effectiveness exist between individuals. We developed and validated the LIFEtime-perspective for Heart Failure (LIFE-HF) model for the prediction of individual (lifetime) risk and treatment benefit in patients with HFrEF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cox proportional hazards functions with age as the time scale were developed in the PARADIGM-HF and ATMOSPHERE trials (n = 15 415). Outcomes were cardiovascular death, heart failure (HF) hospitalization or cardiovascular death, and non-cardiovascular mortality. Predictors were age, sex, New York Heart Association class, prior HF hospitalization, diabetes mellitus, extracardiac vascular disease, systolic blood pressure, left ventricular ejection fraction, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and glomerular filtration rate. The functions were combined in life-tables to predict individual overall and HF hospitalization-free survival. External validation was performed in the SwedeHF registry, ASIAN-HF registry, and DAPA-HF trial (n = 51 286). Calibration of 2- to 10-year risk was adequate, and c-statistics were 0.65-0.74. An interactive tool was developed combining the model with hazard ratios from trials to allow estimation of an individual's (lifetime) risk and treatment benefit in clinical practice. Applying the tool to the development cohort, combined treatment with a mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor, and angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor was estimated to afford a median of 2.5 (interquartile range [IQR] 1.7-3.7) and 3.7 (IQR 2.4-5.5) additional years of overall and HF hospitalization-free survival, respectively. CONCLUSION: The LIFE-HF model enables estimation of lifelong overall and HF hospitalization-free survival, and (lifetime) treatment benefit for individual patients with HFrEF. It could serve as a tool to improve the management of HFrEF by facilitating personalized medicine and shared decision-making.

Effect of adipose tissue quantity and dysfunction on the risk of cancer in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the role of waist circumference and metabolic dysfunction in the risk of cancer in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and to compare this to individuals without T2D. METHODS: Individuals with (n = 1925) and without T2D (n = 10,204) were included from the UCC-SMART cohort. Incident cancer diagnoses were obtained by linkage with the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Metabolic dysfunction was defined as ≥ 3 adapted NCEP ATP-III metabolic syndrome criteria. The effects of waist circumference and metabolic dysfunction on cancer were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for confounders. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.3 years (IQR 4.2-13.1), 1740 individuals were diagnosed with cancer. Incidence rates of total cancer were 19.3 and 15.5/1000 person-years for individuals with and without T2D, respectively. In individuals without T2D, a higher waist circumference was associated with an increased risk of colorectal (per standard deviation: HR 1.23; 95%CI 1.03-1.46), urinary tract (HR 1.28; 95%CI 1.05-1.56) and total cancer (HR 1.06; 95%CI 1.02-1.13). Metabolic dysfunction was related to an increased risk of colorectal (HR 1.35; 95%CI 1.01-1.82), lung (HR 1.37; 95%CI 1.07-1.75) and total cancer (HR 1.13; 95%CI 1.01-1.25) in individuals without T2D. In individuals with T2D, no significant associations were found. CONCLUSION: Incidence rates of cancer are higher among individuals with T2D. However, higher waist circumference and metabolic dysfunction are only associated with an increased cancer risk in patients without T2D. These findings provide novel insights into the role of metabolic dysfunction in the occurrence of cancer.

Composition and distribution of lipoproteins after evolocumab in familial dysbetalipoproteinemia: A randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin type 9 (PCSK9) monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) reduce fasting and post fat load cholesterol in non-HDL and intermediate density lipoprotein (IDL) in familial dysbetalipoproteinemia (FD). However, the effect of PCSK9 mAbs on the distribution and composition of atherogenic lipoproteins in patients with FD is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of the PCSK9 mAb evolocumab added to standard lipid-lowering therapy in patients with FD on fasting and post fat load lipoprotein distribution and composition. METHODS: Randomized placebo-controlled double-blind crossover trial comparing evolocumab (140 mg subcutaneous every 2 weeks) with placebo during two 12-week treatment periods. Patients received an oral fat load at the start and end of each treatment period. Apolipoproteins (apo) were measured with ultracentrifugation, gradient gel electrophoresis, retinyl palmitate and SDS-PAGE. RESULTS: PCSK9 mAbs significantly reduced particle number of all atherogenic lipoproteins, with a stronger effect on smaller lipoproteins than on larger lipoproteins (e.g. IDL-apoB 49%, 95%confidence interval (CI) 41-59 and very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL)-apoB 33%, 95%CI 16-50). Furthermore, PCSK9 mAbs lowered cholesterol more than triglyceride (TG) in VLDL, IDL and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) (e.g. VLDL-C 48%, 95%CI 29-63%; and VLDL-TG 20%, 95%CI 6.3-41%). PCSK9 mAbs did not affect the post fat load response of chylomicrons. CONCLUSION: PCSK9 mAbs added to standard lipid-lowering therapy in FD patients significantly reduced lipoprotein particle number, in particular the smaller and more cholesterol-rich lipoproteins (i.e. IDL and LDL). PCSK9 mAbs did not affect chylomicron metabolism. It seems likely that the observed effects are achieved by increased hepatic lipoprotein clearance, but the specific working mechanism of PCSK9 mAbs in FD patients remains to be elucidated.

C-Reactive Protein and Risk of Incident Heart Failure in Patients With Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) are at high risk of incident heart failure (HF), which may in part reflect the impact of systemic inflammation. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to determine the association between C-reactive protein (CRP) and incident HF in patients with established CVD. METHODS: Patients from the prospective UCC-SMART (Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease) cohort with established CVD, but without prevalent HF were included (n = 8,089). Incident HF was defined as a first hospitalization for HF. The association between baseline CRP and incident HF was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for established risk factors (ie, age, sex, myocardial infarction, smoking, diabetes mellitus, body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, and kidney function). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.7 years (IQR 5.4-14.1 years), 810 incident HF cases were observed (incidence rate 1.01/100 person-years). Higher CRP was independently associated with an increased risk of incident HF: HR per 1 mg/L: 1.10 (95% CI: 1.07-1.13), and for last vs first CRP quartile: 2.22 (95% CI: 1.76-2.79). The association was significant for both HF with reduced (HR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04-1.14) and preserved ejection fraction (HR: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.07-1.18) (P for difference = 0.137). Additional adjustment for medication use and interim myocardial infarction did not attenuate the association, and the association remained consistent beyond 15 years after the CRP measurement. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with established CVD, CRP is an independent risk marker of incident HF. These data support ongoing trial efforts to assess whether anti-inflammatory agents can reduce the burden of HF.

Individual lifetime benefit from low-dose colchicine in patients with chronic coronary artery disease.

AIMS: Low-dose colchicine reduces cardiovascular risk in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), but absolute benefits may vary between individuals. This study aimed to assess the range of individual absolute benefits from low-dose colchicine according to patient risk profile. METHODS AND RESULTS: The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline-recommended SMART-REACH model was combined with the relative treatment effect of low-dose colchicine and applied to patients with CAD from the Low-Dose Colchicine 2 (LoDoCo2) trial and the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (UCC-SMART) study (n = 10 830). Individual treatment benefits were expressed as 10-year absolute risk reductions (ARRs) for myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death (MACE), and MACE-free life-years gained. Predictions were also performed for MACE plus coronary revascularization (MACE+), using a new lifetime model derived in the REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) registry. Colchicine was compared with other ESC guideline-recommended intensified (Step 2) prevention strategies, i.e. LDL cholesterol (LDL-c) reduction to 1.4 mmol/L and systolic blood pressure (SBP) reduction to 130 mmHg. The generalizability to other populations was assessed in patients with CAD from REACH North America and Western Europe (n = 25 812). The median 10-year ARR from low-dose colchicine was 4.6% [interquartile range (IQR) 3.6-6.0%] for MACE and 8.6% (IQR 7.6-9.8%) for MACE+. Lifetime benefit was 2.0 (IQR 1.6-2.5) MACE-free years, and 3.4 (IQR 2.6-4.2) MACE+-free life-years gained. For LDL-c and SBP reduction, respectively, the median 10-year ARR for MACE was 3.0% (IQR 1.5-5.1%) and 1.7% (IQR 0.0-5.7%), and the lifetime benefit was 1.2 (IQR 0.6-2.1) and 0.7 (IQR 0.0-2.3) MACE-free life-years gained. Similar results were obtained for MACE+ and in American and European patients from REACH. CONCLUSION: The absolute benefits of low-dose colchicine vary between individual patients with chronic CAD. They may be expected to be of at least similar magnitude to those of intensified LDL-c and SBP reduction in a majority of patients already on conventional lipid-lowering and blood pressure-lowering therapy.

The long-term benefits of treatment with low-dose colchicine were estimated for 36 642 individuals with coronary heart disease, and compared with those of lipid- and blood pressure­lowering therapy. On average, low-dose colchicine was estimated to lower the risk of cardiovascular disease in the next 10 years from 17.8 to 13.2% (a reduction of 4.6% points) and to afford 2.0 additional years of life without cardiovascular disease.Low-dose colchicine was estimated to be the most effective treatment in 49%, intensive blood pressure­lowering therapy in 28%, and intensive lipid-lowering therapy in 23% of patients.

Variability in benefit from intensive insulin therapy on cardiovascular events in individuals with type 1 diabetes: A post hoc analysis of the DCCT/EDIC study.

AIM: To evaluate presence of treatment effect heterogeneity of intensive insulin therapy (INT) on occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in individuals with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: In participants from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial/Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (DCCT/EDIC) study, individual treatment effect of INT (≥3 daily insulin injections/insulin pump therapy) versus conventional therapy (once/twice daily insulin) on the risk of MACE was estimated using a penalized Cox regression model including treatment-by-covariate interaction terms. RESULTS: In 1441 participants, 120 first MACE events were observed and 1279 individuals (89%) were predicted to benefit from INT with regard to MACE risk reduction. The study population was divided into four groups based on predicted treatment effect: one group with no predicted benefit and three tertiles with predicted treatment benefit. The median absolute reduction in 30-year risk of MACE across groups of predicted treatment effect ranged from -0.2% (i.e. risk increase; interquartile range [IQR] -0.1% to -0.3%) in the group with no predicted benefit to 6.6% (i.e. risk reduction; IQR 3.8%-10.9%; number needed to treat 15) in the highest tertile of predicted benefit. The observed benefit of preventing microvascular complications was stable across all subgroups of predicted MACE benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Although INT reduces the risk of MACE in the majority of individuals with type 1 diabetes, benefit varies substantially. These individual differences in the effect of INT underline the necessity for a better understanding of the individual response to intensive treatment.